Why Munetaka Murakami Could Be an Expensive Bust in the MLB
- Cam denHoed
- Nov 10, 2025
- 5 min read
Japan's baseball export factory keeps producing year after year, and it seems the next prized possession is Munetaka Murakami. The 25-year-old is a two-time NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) Central League MVP (2021, 2022), a triple crown winner (2022), and the youngest player ever to hit 50 home runs in a season. He's an absolute superstar in Japan, holding the record for the most single-season home runs by a Japanese-born player with 56, and is officially posted to the MLB. Reports are suggesting he'll command a contract in the range of $150-200 million, including posting fees.
That's an insane number for almost any player (clearly some exceptions), let alone one who's never seen a steady diet of 95+ mph fastballs or high-spin sliders. While Murakami has all the hype in the world, the numbers tell a more complicated story, one that suggests he could struggle to live up to the massive expectations waiting for him across the Pacific.
Regression and Strikeout Issues Are Real
Let's be real, Murakami's 2022 season was historic. He slashed .318/.458/.711 with 56 home runs, 134 RBIs, and a 1.168 OPS, breaking Sadaharu Oh's record for the most home runs by a Japanese-born player. That kind of production doesn't happen by accident.
But since then, he hasn't been the same hitter. In the 2025 NPB season, Murakami posted a .259 average, 33 home runs, and .937 OPS. That is still very strong, but well below his MVP peak. Even more concerning, his strikeout rate hovered around 27%, his highest yet, while his walk rate also dipped slightly to 15%. Other Japanese players like Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida added 6-8% to their
strikeout rate when they made the transition to the MLB.
This kind of stuff matters because MLB pitching is on another level. The average fastball in the MLB now sits around 94.5 mph, which is concerning because Murakami hit just .095 against 93+ mph fastballs this past season. Pitchers also throw breaking balls with spin rates that NPB hitters rarely see. Murakami's longer, uppercut swing works beautifully against 90 mph but could easily get exposed by big-league arms that live up in the zone and tunnel elite off-speed pitches.
Even Shohei Ohtani, a generational hitter, needed time to adjust to MLB pitching. Murakami doesn't have Ohtani's elite athleticism or bat speed, and scouts have already pointed out timing issues in his load and some trouble handling lefty pitching, hitting just .237 vs. LHP in 2025.
Defense Isn't Helping His Case
Murakami came up as a third baseman, but it's no secret that his glove is not close to an MLB-level fielder. He's graded below average for years, with limited range and a career -6 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) mark in the NPB. Most scouts think he's a designated hitter and possibly a first baseman in the MLB.
That instantly cuts into his value. If you're paying a guy $175 million, you want more than just a power bat who's below average on the bases and borderline unplayable in the field. Unless Murakami proves he can handle a corner of the infield, which looks pretty unlikely, he's going to need to absolutely mash to even somewhat justify the price tag.
The Contract Could Age Fast
Murakami's projected deal, likely somewhere between $100 and $200 million once posting fees are factored in, would make him one of the most expensive international signings ever.
That is a lot of faith to put in a player who's shown declining power against weaker competition. For comparison, Seiya Suzuki signed for $85 million, only just cracked 30 home runs in MLB this year for the first time. Masataka Yoshida came over smoking hot and cooled off quickly, finishing as more of a contact, bottom-half of the order bat.
Murakami might have more raw power than both of them, but his contact issues are a massive red flag. There's a legitimate risk he ends up being a .230 hitter with somewhere around 25 home runs, along with a ton of strikeouts. If I were a GM, that would not exactly be what I would want from a nine-figure investment.
Safer, Proven Options
If a team wants to be a big spending team this offseason, there are more reliable names already proven in the MLB. They might as well divert their money towards Kyle Tucker, who will provide MVP value year in and year out. Cody Bellinger offers Gold Glove defense, power, and versatility. If the team is trying to fill a hole at third base, Alex Bregman is still a very viable option, although being six years older than Murakami.
If teams aren't concerned about the defensive aspect, there are bats like Kyle Schwarber and Marcell Ozuna. If the team is looking to save some money, Rhys Hoskins, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jorge Polanco are very proven, viable options. There are also guys like Josh Naylor, Bo Bichette, Luis Arraez, and many more in that range that are proven bats that could guarantee added value.
If we're talking imports, players like Jung Hoo Lee showed exactly how a polished transition can look when the skill set translates. So maybe looking for a player with elite contact, baseball IQ, and defense would be a more effective way of spending the money.
The Counterpoint: He's Still Young
To be fair, Murakami is just 25, and that matters. He's already proven he can hit elite pitching in Japan, and his career slash line of .282/.413/.582 is ridiculous for someone that young. His power is legit, he doesn't have to sell out to hit home runs, and when he connects, the ball gets out in a hurry.
There's definitely a world where he figures out MLB velocity, shortens his swing, and becomes a 35-40 homer threat by his late 20s. If Munetaka adjusts early, he could easily silence every critic and make this article look stupid in two years.
In saying that, for every Shohei Ohtani, there's a Tsutsugo, Fukudome, or Akiyama. Players who dominated the NPB but couldn't make the leap.
Final Thoughts
Munetaka Murakami's talent is real, but the MLB spotlight is brutal, and history has not been overly kind to big-money power hitters coming from Japan. Between the regression in his numbers, the absurdly high and rising strikeout rate, awful defense, and that massive price tag, it's hard to see him living up to the hype, or even justifying the pay cheque.
Could he figure it out eventually? Sure. But if a team is dropping anywhere near $200 million, they're not paying for eventually. They're paying for right now.
Murakami is looking like he might be a $175 million bust rather than an elite top-of-the-order bat.
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