March Madness Predictions Froznwagon

South Region

Upset Watch: Yale vs Texas A&M

#13 Yale is coming into this year's tournament as Ivy League champions, having gone 22-7 and beating Cornell 90-84 in the championship game. Led by senior guard John Poulakidas, who averaged 19.2 points per game this year, this Yale team is back and looking for another upset. Last year, the Bulldogs upset Auburn in the first round before losing to San Diego State in the second. Their opponent, #4 Texas A&M, have been cold down the stretch. Despite beating the No.1 seed Auburn, they have dropped five of their last seven games, including a 89-70 blowout loss to SEC champions Florida. With Yale known for their ability to win big games in March, combined with Texas A&M's poor form as of late, Yale is a pretty good bet for a first round upset in the south.

 Sleeper Pick: Louisville

#8 Louisville’s season got off to a slow start, with the Cardinals going 8-5 in 2024. However, since the New Year, the team has been on a tear, going 19-2. Their only losses came against Georgia Tech and in the ACC championship game to Duke. With their stellar play in recent months, it’s a shock that the Cardinals were seeded so low in the south. Their first round matchup is against Creighton, which is no easy matchup. If they make it past them, they will very likely face No.1 seed Auburn in round two. It’s going to be difficult, but this Louisville team has more than enough talent to make it until at least the sweet 16. 

Biggest Disappointment: Auburn

Despite having an impressive 28-5 record and being a #1 seed for the first time in program history, Auburn looks the most likely of the one seeds to make an early exit this year. The Tigers are 2-3 in the month of March, losing in the SEC tournament to Tennassee. They have struggled to win games against ranked teams, losing to Alabama, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Duke. Additionally, Auburn has failed to live up expectations in March Madness since making the final four in 2019. Last year, as the four seed, they lost to Yale in the first round. In 2022, as the two seed, they went down in the second round. All that being said, the Tigers should have no issues beating Alabama State in the first round. After that they will face the winner of Louisville vs Creighton, two teams that definitely have the potential to beat them.  

South Winner: Michigan State

It’s always difficult to bet against Tom Izzo and the two time national champions Michigan State, who have had another dominant season in the Big Ten, finishing with a 27-6 record. The team is led by senior guard Jaden Akins and freshman guard Jase Richardson. This Spartans team has a lot of depth in their roster, with seven players averaging above 7 points per game. Their road to the final four this year looks relatively easy compared to other teams. Auburn is looking shaky and Michigan State would be favored to win against any other team they played against. Unless something crazy happens (looking back to 2016), Michigan State is the prime candidate to come out of the south. 

East Region

Upset Watch: Akron vs Arizona

A good bet for an early upset in the east is Akron against Arizona. The Zips are coming off a terrific month of March in which they didn’t lose a game, going 5-0 and winning the Mid-American Conference (MAC), defeating Miami (Ohio) in the finals 76-74. The team is led by redshirted junior guard Nate Johnson, who averaged 14 points per game this year. He put on a show in the MAC championship game, putting up 22 points and shooting 62% from the field. The team has a good mixture of experienced veterans and younger players looking to make a name for themselves in this year's tournament. Arizona on the other hand have gone 5-6 in their last eleven games. Although two of those losses came against Houston, one of the best teams in the country currently, the Wildcats have looked shaky heading into this year’s tournament.

Sleeper Pick: BYU

BYU looks like a team that could make a deep run in this year's tournament. They have proved they can go up against top teams this season, beating ranked schools like Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State twice. They have won 14 of their last 18 games after having a slow start to the season. One big name to look out for is junior guard Richie Saunders, who was named Big 12 most improved player and made the all-Big 12 first team. He averaged 16.0 points per game and also led the team in steals. In the paint, opponents will have to watch out for center Keba Keita, who led the team in blocks with 33. BYUs path to the final four starts with Virginia Commonwealth, which will be a very intriguing game to watch. If the next rounds, they will likely have to play both #3 Wisconsin and #2 Alabama. It wouldn’t be a shock if BYU grinded out tough wins against those teams and faced Duke in the elite eight. 

Biggest Disappointment: Arizona

Although Arizona has the number one offense in the Big 12 this year, their defense has looked subpar, allowing 72.4 points per game (13th out of 16 teams in the Big 12). Throughout the season, teams have had success shooting the ball against the Wildcats, especially from the three point line, where opponents shot 34%. They are also 10th in the Big 12 in turnovers, averaging 11.5 per game. They allowed a season high 102 points against Wisconsin, 96 points against BYU, 84 against Iowa State and 80 against Texas Tech. The Wildcats definitely have the offensive prowess to go far this year, but their defensive struggles will most likely hold them back from making a deep run.  

East Winner: Duke

Is there really a debate here? Duke has been a dominant force in the ACC this year, only losing three games all season and winning the conference championship. They are arguably the best team in the country both on paper and on the court. ACC Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg has had a remarkable season, averaging 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks per game, establishing himself as a two way player and the obvious number one pick in this year’s NBA draft. Alongside Flagg, the Blue Devils have two other players who are projected to go in the first round this year. Kon Knueppel is a 6 '6 guard who is considered one of the best shooting prospects in this year's draft. Khaman Maluach is a 7 '2 center who can impact both sides of the game. Overall, this Duke team is full of talent, and will be the favourites to come out of this region. 

Midwest Region

Upset Watch: Troy vs Kentucky

There is no shortage of upset candidates in the midwest. #13 High Point beating #4 Purdue could just as easily be discussed. #14 Troy finished their season 23-10 and won the Sun Belt Conference, defeating Arkansas State 94-81 in the finals. This will be the program's third time competing in March Madness, and they have yet to get past the first round. How amazing would it be to see them get their first ever tournament win against #3 Kentucky, a school which has been known in recent years to be vulnerable to cinderella teams. They have been victim to two of the biggest March Madness upsets in recent years, losing to #14 Oakland in the first round last year, and losing to #15 St Peters in the first round in 2022. 

Sleeper Pick: Clemson

#5 Clemson is a team that people are underestimating in this year's tournament. Many people have them losing in the first round to #12 McNeese. However, the Tigers made the elite eight last year, and most of their key players from last year's run are still on the team. Clemson was dominant in a relatively weak ACC this year, going 27-6 and outscoring opponents by more than 10 points on average. They also managed to beat Duke, something only two other teams managed to do. If they beat McNeese, they will most likely play Purdue, whose team is significantly weaker than the team that made the national championship game last year. If they play Houston in the sweet 16, expect a highly competitive match. This Clemson team has both the talent and experience necessary to go on another deep run in this year's tournament. 

Biggest Disappointment: Tennessee

Expectations are high for this Tennessee team, who are once again a #2 seed in march madness. On paper, they have a relatively easy path to the elite eight, and their hardest matchup in the first three games will most likely end up being Kentucky, worst case scenario. However, despite being a fifth seed or higher in their last six tournaments, the furthest they’ve gotten is the elite eight. Their head coach Rick Barnes is known to struggle in March madness. In his nearly four decades of coaching, he’s only managed to make the final four once. This team just seems bound for another disappointing tournament.

Midwest Winner: Houston

Houston were once again the team to beat in the Big 12 this year. They beat every ranked team in the conference at least once, and finished the season with a 13 game win streak and the conference title. Defense wins championships, and Houston had one of the best in the country this year, finishing second in points allowed per game (58.5). Opponents will have to watch out for 6 '8 forward Joseph Tugler, who leads the team in blocks with 2.1 per game and is the Big 12 defensive player of the year. Offensively, the team is led by senior guard L.J Cryer, who averaged 15.2 points per game, as well as junior guard Emanuel Sharp, who averaged 12.6. As a team, Houston is very good from beyond the arch, leading the Big 12 in three point percentage (39.8%). The Cougars have a very balanced roster and as long as they remain healthy expect them to come out on top in the midwest. 

West Region

Upset Watch: Colorado State vs Memphis

There are several upset candidates in the west, including #11 Drake, #13 Grand Canyon, and #10 Arkansas. However, #12 Colorado State seems the most likely. The Rams are currently riding a ten game winning streak, and won the Mountain West Conference championship, defeating Boise State 69-56. Fifth year guard Nique Clifford leads the team in points, assists, rebounds and steals and was named to the all- Mountain West first team. #5 Memphis finished the season winning the American Athletic Conference and going 29-5, with wins over ranked teams such as Ole Miss and Clemson. However, star point guard Tyrese Hunter is out with an ankle injury, leading to questions over who will facilitate the Tigers offense. 

Sleeper Pick: Texas Tech

In the west, #1 Florida and #2 St Johns have gathered most of the attention from both media and bracket picks alike. But nobody is talking about #3 Texas Tech, who boast the Big 12 player of the year JT Toppin. The sophomore forward averaged 18.1 points per game, 9.2 rebounds per game, and 1.3 blocks per game. The Red Raiders don’t just rely on Toppin for offense though. Forward Derrion Williams and guard Chance McMillian both averaged over 14 points per game this year. The team averaged 80.9 points per game, third most in the Big 12. The Red Raiders also finished fourth in the Big 12 in scoring defense and second in points margin, behind only Houston. In recent years, the school has done well in March Madness, making the national championship game and the elite eight in 2019 and 2018 respectively. This is their best team since that national championship berth, and although it’s unlikely they make it that far this year, another appearance in the elite eight seems very realistic for the Red Raiders. 

Biggest Disappointment: St John’s

The St John’s hype train is big this year, but there are some things you need to keep in mind before picking them in your bracket. Despite having numerous appearances in March Madness historically, they have only made it to March Madness three times in the last twenty years. In their last appearance (2019), they didn’t even make it to the first round, losing in the first four. Only two players on this St John's team have played in March Madness before, leading to concerns over lack of experience. This year, the Red Storm finished with an impressive 30-4 record and a Big East title, but didn’t play any games against top ranked teams. How they will manage against top teams in the west such as Texas Tech and Florida remains to be seen. 

West Winner: Florida

Florida enter March Madness with a 30-4 record and a SEC title. They had a difficult schedule, facing seven teams ranked in the top 10, and boasting an impressive 5-2 record in those games. Led by all-SEC first team senior guard Walter Clayton Jr, who averaged 17.5 points per game, this Gators team features a high firepower offense who ranked third in the country in points per game (85.4). The team is also very solid defensively, allowing 69.2 points per game (third in the SEC). 6’11 center Alex Condon is a beast in the paint, averaging 7.9 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game. It’s hard to find any weaknesses in this Florida team. They are good on both sides of the court and are looking to bounce back from their first round exit in the tournament from last year. Based on how their season has gone so far, it would be a major let down if the Gators didn’t reach the final four.